admin created a new topic ' TEST' in the forum. 11 meses
admin replied to the topic 'Erika Boletin #1 - Advisory #1' in the forum. 11 meses

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250246
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015

Satellite imagery, buoy observations, and a very recent ASCAT pass
suggest that the circulation associated with the area of low
pressure over the tropical Atlantic has become better defined.
Deep convection also became better organized during the afternoon
and has persisted in a band over the southeastern portion of the
circulation this evening. The NOAA buoy reported peak south-
southwesterly winds of 39 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb.
Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt
tropical storm. Erika becomes the 5th tropical storm of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season.

During the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an
environment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, and
generally low vertical wind shear. These factors should allow
strengthening. After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching an
upper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which
is expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the
next 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity
consensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with
the statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane
strength. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about
3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast is
between these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48
hours. Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, the
intensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence.

Erika is moving quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic or
275/17 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic during the next few days. The forward speed of
Erika should gradually decrease as the cyclone nears the western
portion of the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through 72 hours, with more spread after that time. The
bifurcation appears to be the result of the future strength of
Erika. The models that have a deeper depiction of the cyclone show
more of a northwestward turn late in the period, while the models
that weaken Erika indicate a more westward motion. The NHC forecast
is close to the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean, which is south of the
consensus but not as far south as the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 14.4N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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admin created a new topic ' Erika Boletin #1 - Advisory #1' in the forum. 11 meses

024057W_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250241
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...14.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Erika. Watches may be required for a portion of the Leeward
Islands early Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Buoy observations and satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening, NOAA buoy 41041 reported
sustained winds of 45 mph with a gust to 51 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
buoy is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
None


NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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admin replied to the topic 'Danny Advisory #15' in the forum. 11 meses

y aqui la discusión pública ...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220238
TCDAT4

HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

After reaching its peak intensity earlier today, Danny appears to
be starting a weakening trend. There has been no eye in infrared
satellite imagery since about 1800 UTC, and a 2136 UTC WindSat pass
showed that a narrow swath of drier air had worked its way into
the inner core, eroding the southern eyewall. The shear analysis
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicates that a little
over 20 kt of southwesterly shear is now affecting Danny, and
dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV surveillance flight revealed that
there was some light inflow into the western part of the circulation
between 300 and 400 mb. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
were steady or decreased slightly from six hours ago; therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 95 kt.

Vertical shear is expected to increase further during the next
couple of days, which should allow drier air in the surrounding
environment to penetrate into Danny's circulation. Therefore,
there is no change in the thinking that Danny should weaken as it
approaches and moves across the Leeward Islands and the Greater
Antilles during the forecast period. The SHIPS diagnostics is
currently showing only 10 kt of shear affecting Danny, and if the
shear is actually higher as shown by the UW-CIMSS product, then the
SHIPS and LGEM solutions probably keep Danny's intensity too high
during the next few days. The global models continue to depict
rapid weakening and show Danny degenerating into a surface trough in
3-4 days. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast is close to
the IVCN intensity consensus and a little bit lower than the
previous forecast. Danny is still expected to weaken to a tropical
storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands between 48-72 hours.

Danny's initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to accelerate and turn westward during
the next few days while the subtropical ridge builds westward over
the southwestern Atlantic. The bulk of the track guidance is
tightly clustered for the entire forecast period, and no
appreciable changes to the previous NHC track forecast were
required on this advisory cycle.

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft are
scheduled to investigate Danny and the surrounding environment
Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.8N 49.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.6N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.4N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.6N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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admin created a new topic ' Danny Advisory #15' in the forum. 11 meses

023922W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220237
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...DANNY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...14.8N 49.8W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should
monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches may be
required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 49.8 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). An increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, with a
turn toward the west forecast Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical storm on
Sunday as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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admin created a new topic ' Welcome to Kunena!' in the forum. 11 meses



Thank you for choosing Kunena for your community forum needs in Joomla.

Kunena, translated from Swahili meaning “to speak”, is built by a team of open source professionals with the goal of providing a top quality, tightly unified forum solution for Joomla.




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admin creado el nuevo tema ' Test #2' en el foro. 2 años

Bueno, parece no todo en Australia es fabuloso.

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admin creado el nuevo tema ' TEST' en el foro. 3 años

TEST 4/2017

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Hola:

En este hilo de posteos trataré de colocar información (principalmente videos de YT) relacionados con el Conflicto en el China South Sea o MAr del Sur de China. Trataré de colocar en orden cronologico (mas viejo primero) de forma que se pueda apreciar como ha evolucionado el conflicto y las acciones de los paises envuieltos. Los videos colocados NO representan que estemos de acuerdo con lo que presenta el autor del video.

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